CMC Markets专栏:金融大日-今夜非农看点!(图)

又是一夜非农业将临, 金融市场会怎样随其舞动是最为注目的焦点.  实际上市场所关心并不是单纯的一个就业数据问题, 而是就业数据如何影响到美联储决议的问题, 各国央妈的动向问题才是真正撼动市场走势的根本. 本次非农看什么?

第一看美国就业数据与失业率, 第二看美国小时工资，第三看美国贸易平衡账.

看点一: 非农就业数据与失业率

美联储是否继续加息还是看老生常谈的两个方面: 劳动力市场与通货膨胀率. 在就业数据持续好转的情况下, 美国一直迟疑继续加息的仍然是持续低迷的国内通胀率. 美联储希望其能够如愿以偿的实现货币逐步正常化, 进行循序渐进的加息进程. 则本次非农美联储想看到的是就业人数好于预期, 失业率至少保持持平.

2月份非农就业数据预期情况

从以上图表可以看到, 如果本次非农就业人口增长15.1万人以上则可以保持美国失业率持平在4.9%. 如果数据在15.1万人以上但小于预期值的19.5万人口,则会表明美国劳动力市场恢复放缓, 不足以促使美联储在3月份再次加息. 只有本次数据好于预期19.5万人才会有对于加息的推动动用.

看点二：美国小时工资变化

美国平均小时工资变化情况

数据来源：Ycharts.com

数据来源: Forexfactory

从小时工资水平来看，自2012年-2016年以来，美国小时工资水平呈持续上涨态势；并且自2015年12月份美联储实行了自2006年以来第一次加息之后， 总体上仍然上涨，其中1月份无增长，2月份涨幅较大为0.5%。 工资水平的提高是消费力上涨的支撑，消费能力的上涨是带动消费物价指数上涨的利好因素。 那么从这方面来看对于美联储加息是利好因素。 所以只要本次小时工资水平能够达到预期值的0.2%， 则不会对加息有负面的影响。

看点三：美国贸易平衡账

对于美联储加息的另一个重要影响因素是贸易赤字扩大与国内低通胀，这主要受强势美元与能源价格低迷影响. 通胀率反映的是社会经济活动的健康指标, 如果社会经济疲软, 加息会导致经济硬着陆而引发金融危机. 美国2008年的次贷危机便是很好的一例. 所以对于此次贸易数据也是需要密切关注的看点之一。本次预期为赤字435亿美元， 只有赤字水平逐步缩小才会是对于美联储加息的利好因素。

数据可能不会影响大环境

总体上看，本次非农可能不会对于市场大环境造成较大的改变，及时各项数据均好于预期，对于立即改变美联储的鸽派口径也不会造成立竿见影的影响。在全球经济仍旧疲软的环境中，美联储会继续等待更长时间才会实行其第二次0.25个百分点的加息。本月FOMC会议将在16日举行，我们所能期待的是是否本次非农会改变其口径。

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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.co.nz or you can call us on 0800 26 26 27.

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。