CMC Markets专栏:德指的潜在弱势下行形态

德国9月份ZEW经济敏感度调查指数录得12.1，低于长期均值24.9，呈自3月份以来持续下滑走势。主要由于新兴市场经济的放缓使得德国出口受到影响。ZEW主席教授表示由于外部需求减弱因素影响，短期内出口将不太可能得到刺激性增长。

技术形态上看，日线图中德指有望进一步下行，很可能继续下行突破10000点关口，日线图上出现潜在的三角区域整理后突破下行的形态，前日的类似顶部十字星与昨日的短小阴柱给出现在的进一步下行信号。潜在的下行目标很可能进一步挑战10000整数位关口，然后是前低9300点附近的位置。月线图上显示，德指30在8月份大跌回调后目前受压于黄金分割线23.6%回荡线的位置，如果受阻下行，则下方的潜在空头目标可能在9000整数位（38.2%回荡线），然后是8000整数位（50.0%回荡线）。

同时月线图随即震荡技术指标均显示有超买区域潜在的死叉下行信号，进一步说明德指目前的潜在空头形态。

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Author：CMC Markets, Tina Teng

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。