CMC Markets专栏:石油大亨们的那些家长里短

原油抄底之梦始终难圆, 油价在2月份触底反弹后，近期再呈下行态势。目前纽约商品交易所的西德克萨斯原油WTI期货价格由3月份高点42.40美元跌至目前的35.46美元附近，跌幅达16.4%；4月份开月以来延续下跌态势，昨日再跌3.53%至35.46；伦敦商品交易所布伦特原油期货价格昨日下跌1.9%，自3月份高位以来跌幅达12%。石油商家们最近又在吹的什么风？近期热炒的几大商家的故事要从 沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯与伊朗说起…

产油国难以联合减产，伊朗为羁绊

据彭博社消息， 沙特阿拉伯副王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼表示只有伊朗冻结石油产量的前提下，其才会实行同样的行动。但由于伊朗在被解除经济制裁后，为挽回10年来所造成的经济损失， 并无意对其原油产量冻结而失去正在复苏的原油出口市场。

此前沙特阿拉伯协同俄罗斯、卡塔尔与委内瑞拉宣布去将联合冻结产量的意向，导致油价触底反弹，但联合意向只有在伊朗的配合下才有可能真正赋注行动。油产商们将在4月17日再次汇集卡塔尔首都多哈进行商谈，伊朗表示将出席此次会议。

上个月，伊朗石油部长Bijan Zanganeh 表示伊朗将提高原油产量至4百万桶/天，是自2008年以来最大产量。彭博社统计数据显示，伊朗3月份原油产量增长10万桶/日至320万桶，其产量达自2012年以来最大。

伊朗石油产量走势（2015年4月-2016年2月）

原油空头头寸激增

由于沙特副王储的一席讲话， 市场对于联合冻结产量的达成 产生怀疑，根据美国商品期货交易委员会数据统计，截至3月29日，WTI原油空头头寸数量增至自11月份以来最高。其中空头头寸增长11167张合约至75598，涨幅17%。多头头寸下滑6.3%至221016。

对于西德克萨斯原油WTI来看，42美元始终是个难以突破的关口。空头选择在此入场主要是由于基本面并无确定支撑原油上涨的理由，目前35美元将是近期较为重要的支持价格。有可能会出现短期反弹，但如果4月17日并无让改善原油供给过剩的协议达成，则可能原油会破位下跌转为熊市。

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。